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A View from Europe: The Hungarian ReferendumIn a country was been my home for five years, the people are preparing for a referendum on the EU. But unlike in my country of birth, the popular verdict is in little doubt. |
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He may have bided his time, but at the next elections in 2010 Orban won with such a huge majority that his party, Fidesz, was able to rewrite the constitution again and again and again. He reduced the numbers of MPs by two thirds; allowed old-kingdom Hungarians who still lived in Slovakia, Romania, Croatia, to vote for the national parliament; and awarded the winning party at the next election a 'bonus' 40 seats (or 20% of the total). With the aid of this bonus, Fidesz was able to regain its two-thirds majority the next time around, in 2015, although a couple of bi-election losses mean they've now lost the ability to write any more constitutions. Yet the posters of a grinning Orban, declaring 'Only Fidesz' and plastered all over the country, showed how quickly this European country had apparently fallen into a one-party state. The main opposition these days is the far-right Jobbik, and it is on their field of extreme nationalism that he now is largely fighting. Today, there are no more posters of a grinning Orban, they're not necessary given the lack of up-coming elections. To fill this campaigning void, however, Orban's Fidesz has found a way to keep the populace busy with their political agenda. Next month the country will hold a referendum on the question of whether the European Union should be able to mandate the obligatory resettlement of non-Hungarian citizens into Hungary without the approval of the National Assembly. It's not a question on which the government could really lose; something David Cameron might care to dwell upon as he chooses which revolving door to take next. Yet the official campaigning has been one-sided and relentless. Every household has received a 20-page booklet entitled 'Send a message that Brussels can understand', with UKIP-style pictures of lines of refugees, Hungarian armoured vehicles, the Nice lorry and some formal-looking, if somewhat dubious statistics about no-go zones and money. There's even a quote from Mr Cameron about the need for Europe to have strong external borders. And the advertising isn't limited to the postal service; at Metro stations, blue billboards declare that in Libya alone more than a million people want to come to Europe. The precise endgame is still unclear, but my guess is that it's about positioning Orban to take advantage of Brexit. There are many here who would like to follow Britain straight out the front gate of Europe, but then there are ever more elaborate infrastructure schemes planned for Budapest and beyond. Outside the EU, from where would the financing come for the new museums on the city park, for the renovation of the Prime Minister's new residence in the Buda Castle or for the millions that have been syphoned off through 'anti-corruption' funding? They'd have to look elsewhere, most likely to Putin's Russia which is already providing the funding (and everything else) for a new reactor and Hungary's only nuclear power station in Paks. This is where these goings on in Hungary, just as in Poland and elsewhere, will have such a huge impact on Britain as they try to worm themselves out of the Union's webs. The EU is not going to let Britain off lightly; they're going to want to make it as unattractive an option as possible to dissuade net beneficiaries and contributors alike from following Britain's lead. A Britain ruled largely by moronic public school boys, who has so few negotiators of their own that they've had to elicit help from the Commonwealth. What those boys and girls from Canada and Australia can hope to pull out of the hat is dubious, but I wish them all the luck in the world. They're going to need it. Adam R. Mathews, Budapest, 13 September 2016 |
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